Where is the inflection point of A shares under the shock of a 200 billion foreign epidemic?
For stocks, please read Jin Qilin analyst research report, authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive, to help you tap potential potential opportunities!
200 billion foreign buyers!
Where is the turning point of A shares under the impact of the epidemic?
Source: Zhengzhuo Ying, the original author of the Global Tiger Finance app. As everyone expected, the A-share market fell sharply on the first trading day after the Chinese New Year, with more than 3,000 shares falling.
The reason why the decline is so great is that there is a sense of panic and oversold in it.
And through the good news of the progress of Wuhan pneumonia epidemic, investors continue to expect that the market can also reverse pessimism and turn for the better, the stock market will also usher in an inflection point, and even start the oversold rebound.
February 3 was the first trading day after the Spring Festival of the Year of the Rat. The three major stock indexes opened lower and the Shanghai index fell 8.
At 73%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 9.
13%, GEM fell 8.
In the two cities, the opening limit of over 3,000 stocks fell, and more than 3,200 stocks fell more than 9%.
Finally closed, the decline narrowed slightly.
From the overall perspective of the disk, today’s pharmaceutical stocks, mask concepts and cloud office, online education and online game and other concept stocks have strengthened against the trend.
The technology stocks and consumer stocks that surged in 2019 violated the heavy losses.
There is no doubt that one of the reasons was due to the emergency of the pneumonia epidemic in Wuhan.
In fact, in the history of A-shares, similar emergencies have also occurred occasionally, and their average value has quickly produced significant bearishness on the trend of A-shares, and then an inflection point has begun to rebound. Some events have subsequently promoted the stock market to accelerate its rise and usher in a bull market.
Looking at it vertically, it has built the bottom of the bull market.
At present, the epidemic is in a full-blown period, and for investors, the panic is also out of a potential release phase.
However, today’s Northbound funds killed a returning carbine. Under the market crash, there was a crazy net inflow of 20 billion in one day.
Foreign countries are not pessimistic about the market outlook. On the contrary, the short-term serious injuries caused by the epidemic are undoubtedly a golden pit for the 杭州桑拿网 medium and long term.
/// Revelation from the major negative event in history is that investors usually underestimate the severity of the impact of the event when it occurs, and become an iconic trigger event. The market will panic and cause the collapse to decrease, and overshoot.
In order to prevent the epidemic, the provinces and cities have extended their rework time based on local conditions.
In this context, in order to stabilize the capital market, the voice of extending the opening of A shares has gradually appeared. The Securities Regulatory Commission said that for the stock market opening on February 3, the Securities Regulatory Commission said it was the result of weighing various factors.
The opening of the A-share market has affected hundreds of millions of investors. In order to reduce the panic in the market, the transfer has been taken again. In order to maintain a reasonable and abundant liquidity of the banking system and a stable operation of the currency market during the special period of epidemic prevention and control, February 3, ChinaThe People’s Bank of China will carry out 1.
The US $ 2 trillion reverse market repo operation invested funds to ensure excessive liquidity supply, and the overall liquidity of the banking system was 900 billion yuan more than the same period last year.
In addition to the above trillion red envelopes, on the evening of February 2nd, on the eve of the market opening, some securities companies will suspend the stock-sale business from February 3, 2020.
There was final news that some brokerages accepted the guidance of the supervisory window on the same day and requested that the supplementary scale of the securities lending business be controlled from February 3rd, which will surely give the market a lot of peace of mind.
In fact, the last trading day before the Spring Festival, A shares fell more than a hundred points has taken the lead in responding, and with the further spread of the epidemic, during the A-share market break, the external market fell sharply and plummeted.
Data show that the Hang Seng Index has fallen by 2 in the three trading days since the market opened on January 29.
62% and 0.
52%, Taiwan’s weighted index plunged 5 in a single day.
75%, A50 futures gradually fell over 7%.
As the “main battlefield” of A-shares, panic is particularly acute, and the response of the capital market will be more intense.
Today’s opening fell sharply while most investors were “expected”.
From an economic point of view, the epidemic has indeed affected the national economy to some extent.
In fact, affected by the epidemic, human mobility, consumer spending, and other service industries such as consumption will be affected, resulting in investors being pessimistic about market economy expectations, that is, panic overshooting.
But when the epidemic situation improves, people’s expectations of the economic outlook will gradually become optimistic, reflected in the capital market, there will be an oversold rebound. // Confidence and turning point // Under the pneumonia epidemic, investors are most concerned about how the trend of the A-share market will be interpreted.
Judging from the speed of information dissemination, the speed and breadth of dissemination are far greater than before.
Expanding this will amplify the panic among the people and expand market volatility.
At the same time, the recovery of confidence and the rebound time may be advanced.
The normal opening of the A-share market on February 3rd showed the regulator’s confidence in the market, respect for the rules, and overcoming difficulties.
Before the market opened, the CSRC shouted twice that the impact of the epidemic on the market was short-term and would not change the long-term trend.
There is one thing in the A-share market today, especially among them. The northbound capital known as “smart capital” grabbed A-shares. At the opening of the market, the net inflow was nearly 3 billion, and the net inflow throughout the day exceeded 18 billion.
The emergence of large net inflows from foreign countries proves confidence in the A-share market.
In addition, if foreign net inflows can continue, it will also promote the gradual stabilization of the market.
Historically, the most direct influential factor in the A-share’s rebound has been the progress of the epidemic.
An inflection point occurred in the additional cases of SARS in 2003, both the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Composite Index rebounded, and gradually recovered the over-decline.
Its performance is basically consistent with the epidemic prevention and control stage.
At present, the number of people cured of pneumonia in Wuhan is also increasing, and several drugs with significant effects have appeared on the overall market.
For example, Remdesivir, a new antiviral drug developed by Gilead Corporation in the United States, the symptoms of the first new type of coronavirus pneumonia patients were rapidly improved after using the drug.
On February 1st, Beijing time, Dr. Merdad Parsey, Gilead’s Global Chief Medical Officer, issued a statement on behalf of the company, and the company is working closely with global health institutions to provide the research drug Rudexivir (Swedish(Desivir) for experimental treatment to support response to outbreak of new coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection.
In addition, Ding Sheng, Dean of the School of Pharmacy of Tsinghua University, said that there are currently two types of known drugs that have been discussed more and are more reliable. One is the inhibitor of HIV protein-lopinavir / ritonavir, and the other isOne is a new nucleoside analog antiviral drug against Ebola virus.
Earlier, Academician Zhong Nanshan said in an interview that an inflection point may be seen around the Lantern Festival.
The output of the current test kit has greatly exceeded the number of suspected patients. Wuhan Vulcan Mountain and Lei Shenshan Hospital were delivered for use on February 3 and February 5, respectively, and the preparation of vaccines was also on the agenda.
This means that the outbreak will most likely be brought under control by mid-February.
It is inferred from historical experience that it is not necessary to wait until the epidemic is completely resolved, because investors are expected to improve and the market will take the lead in rebounding.
The relief of panic is also a precursor to the inflection point.
Too many brokerages believe that February will become a “golden pit” on the way to a “well-off bull”, which is the most optimal configuration time.
For example, the month of February may be the time of crisis and opportunity transition.
// “Danger” and “Opportunity” // For investors, the market opportunity has always existed.
In the short term, referring to the 4th edition of the new coronary pneumonia virus diagnosis and treatment plan, some medical fields are expected to constitute a thickening of performance, that is, IVD, guidelines for therapeutic drugs, medical consumables, blood products, distribution and retail must be the basis for speculation.
In addition, in order to prevent and control the epidemic, many governments have issued notices to delay the start of school and encourage employees to work from home.
The “housing economy” will gradually continue to be booming in the future, and may bring hype in the short term, such as games, online videos, online education, cloud conferences, e-commerce, express delivery, and so on.
In the medium and long term, due to the outbreak of the epidemic, the operation of the market has been disrupted. After the impact of the epidemic has faded, the market gradually returns to its own operating logic.
The Chinese economy has been improving for a long time, and the fundamentals of expected growth have not changed.
From the perspective of the internal and external environment, the positive factors in economic development are constantly increasing, and the internal deterioration of the economy is increasing. These have supported the stable operation of financial markets.
Starting in December 2019, A-shares will start a comprehensive New Year’s Eve market. The Shanghai Stock Index once rose to a point of about 3,100 points, which also made too many investors continue to wait for the bull market.
And 2020 is a big year for technological innovation. New demand for 5G base stations and mobile phones, TWS / AR glasses, and cloud games is about to erupt. New energy vehicles, consumer stocks, etc. will also improve the epidemic situation and accelerate the return of funds.
Recently, the policy of the regulators has been more frequent, from the “Ministry of Finance 30” promulgated by the five ministries and commissions to the “1”.
The 2 trillion yuan of liquidity has been suspended for the night trading of futures and the short-selling business of securities lending. These have gradually cut the supervisory layer to escort securities and ensure the stable operation of the financial market.
Relevant parties are also studying policies and measures to restore production, stabilize the economy, and hedge the impact of interest rates so that the market can quickly emerge from the crisis and restore confidence in the economy.